We’ll know much more tomorrow after 18:00 UTC when Fed makes the interest decision, but let’s look at what the SPX500 channels say today. Will the stock market crash?
While New York analysts argue that S&P 500 has declined on average more than 1% in the final ten trading days o the month, the end o September may be doomed. But that’s also why the bullish scenario is not impossible.
We have prepared three channels for you today. The red dashed lines show the long-term trend. We are definitely in a downtrend since the beginning of the year. Stocks are going down, with rallies being just retracements in the long run. The second red channel shows the short-term trend with a local high at 4325 on August 16. If the market reacts negatively to the Fed conference tomorrow, we may expect support somewhere around 3817. If the fears of high interest rates are already priced in, then the resistance should be somewhere around 4030.
The 3636 level from June 17 seems to be strong support as it’s the lowest SPX500 has been since 2020.
The green bullish channel is not out of the question. The equity market has been in decline for months, and many underpriced valuable companies exist. We are going out of a very tense economic and political year, and any positive news from China, Ukraine, Germany, Australia, the UK, or the US can spark a wave of optimism.
Make sure your SimpleFX account is funded and ready tomorrow. It’s good to start trading before 18:00 UTC.